• Locations

The first third of 2018 witnessed a total of 1423 incidents which is a decrease of 20% compared to the last third of 2017, but is consistent with last year’s trend during the same period (1476 incidents)  This decrease can appear to be the result of seasonal effects with less incidents reported during this period of the year. In April, the number of incidents significantly dropped compared to previous months with only 210 incidents mapped, whereas in April 2017, 476 incidents were mapped. This drop could be attributed to a decrease in the reporting of security incidents as media outlets were mainly focusing on the 2018 Parliamentary elections on May 6th, rather than an actual decrease of conflicts.

amounted to less than 42% of the total mapped incidents.  

Similar to the last third of 2017, Sour remained the most mapped location with 173 incidents mainly related to Israeli Borders Conflict (149 incidents). It was followed by Saida (113 incidents), and Baalbeck (104 incidents).  

In Saida, the majority of the incidents (60) were classified as Individual Acts of Violence mostly relevant to arrests, brawl/disputes, shootings, robberies etc. Moreover, no less than 35% of the incidents in Saida were located in Ain el-Helweh. In fact, tensions have been increasing in the camp since February, after a few months of relative calm.  Following 2 assassination attempts on the same day, one targeting a Joint Palestinian Security Force member, and the other a Fateh member, armed clashes erupted between armed militants and the Fateh group causing 1 casualty and several injuries. Moreover, 18 Individual Acts of Violence were mapped in the camp between January and April 2018, mainly relevant to personal disputes. Indeed, the punctual clashes that erupt within the camp, as well as the perpetual stress of life under very precarious conditions, also stir tensions among Palestinian refugees.

In Baalbeck, 36% of the mapped incidents were classified as Power and Governance, mainly related to LAF intermittently conducting raids and arresting suspects of affiliation with armed militant organisations. It is noteworthy to point out, that such arrests  have been less frequent as the number of operations against suspects of affiliation with Jihadist groups (36 incidents) dropped by 55% compared to the last third (81 incidents).  This could be the result of the ousting of armed militants from the outskirts of Arsal and Ras Baalbeck in August and September 2017 (check here our Conflict Analysis bulletin, issue 8, to learn more about the LAF offensive against armed militants in Ras Baalbeck), but also the weakening of such groups in Syria and Iraq.

• Categories

and became the second most mapped category.

The number of incidents categorised as illicit trade (248) increased by 20% compared to the last third of 2017 (205 incidents) with almost half of them related to drugs (121 incidents) (More on illicit trade activities in Lebanon in our Conflict Analysis bulletin, issue 9 here, and our infographic n state response to such incidents here). Moreover, the majority of these incidents were classified as Power and Governance (72 incidents) which is consistent with trends reported during the past year, and indicates that authorities have been targeting prominent drug networks rather than individual users. In fact, since the appointment of a new leadership at the head of security agencies such as the LAF and the ISF in March 2017, the number of wanted criminals arrested seems to have increased notably among individuals who were being protected by connections. More generally, it appears that state apparatuses have been more proactive in containing widespread illicit trade.

9 collect the ransom and disappear with the money.

No less than 7 clashes were mapped between January and April 2018. 3 of them took place in the Palestinian camps of Ain el-Helweh on February 9, Rashidieh on March 4, and Chatila on March 7.  Ever since the Nakba, commemorated on the 15th of May, and the subsequent fleeing of Palestinians, the latter’s living conditions in Lebanon have been characterised by extreme precariousness. The poor socio-economic situation, as well as the ongoing tensions between Palestinian factions, may explain the volatile security environment within these camps.

The remainder of the clashes mapped were mainly relevant to disputes between rival families that escalated violently and involved the use of heavy artillery. For instance, on March 11, a dispute between members of Al-Dandash and Al-Masri family in Baalbeck, evolved into an armed clash during which machine guns and shells were used. Similar clashes often erupt between clans, especially in the Bekaa Valley where families are backed by their own militia. This indicates the fragility of state control within these areas, as they seem to be dominated by prominent armed clans, which take matters such as revenge or justice into their own hands.  

After witnessing a significant decrease during the last third of 2017 (69 incidents), the number of collective actions mapped (82 incidents) between January and April 2018 increased by 19%. The majority of these incidents were related to ongoing issues such as general amnesty for Islamic detainees, salary scale for teachers, long-term contracts for EDL workers among others Conflicts of Socio-Economic Development (see below to learn more about Conflicts of Socio-Economic Development). It does seem that citizens have been pressuring policy makers into addressing their concerns, ahead of the 2018 Parliamentary elections on May 6th.

Moreover, Lebanon witnessed an escalation of tensions, at the end of January, after a video showing Foreign Minister and head of the FPM, Gebran Bassil, calling Parliament speaker Nabih Berri a “thug” was leaked. This video triggered a surge in collective actions in support of Berri over the course of 3 days, which were sometimes followed by armed confrontations between Berri and Bassil supporters. These incidents were seen by many as a threat to Lebanese stability as they revived sectarian tensions in the country.  

• Actors

Although the number of incidents involving the Israeli Military (579) decreased by 23% compared to the last third (755), it remained the most mapped actor. It is followed by Lebanese civilians (406 incidents) and ISF (317 incidents).  

The number of incidents involving Lebanese civilians (406) increased by 6% compared to the last third of 2017 (383 incidents), whereas the number of incidents involving Syrian civilians/refugees (190 incidents) decreased by 14% compared to the same period (220 incidents). Most of these incidents (131) were relevant to the arrest of Syrian nationals for illegal stay, or for committing infractions such as forgery, illicit trade, robbery etc.

Although incidents with Palestinian refugees (81) decreased by 33% compared to the last third (122 incidents), they have been nonetheless involved in several armed clashes between January and April 2018, as tensions have been escalating within refugees camp between Palestinian belonging to armed factions in Ain el-Helweh, Rashidieh, as well as in Chatila,

2. Frequency of incidents by primary classification of conflict (from January-April 2018)

Although the number of incidents classified as Border Conflicts with Israel significantly decreased by 33% compared to the last third of 2017, it remained the most mapped classification with a total of 589 incidents. Since the beginning of the year, tensions have been escalating with Israel, as the latter began the construction of a controversial separation wall at the borders, which has been contested by Lebanese politicians, as well as civilians protesting.

Similar to the last third, Individual Acts of Violence (466 incidents) was the second most mapped category. 52% of these incidents were relevant to arrest (241), 16% to shooting (74), and 6% to robbery. These numbers emphasise state apparatuses efforts to fight criminality and infractions by pursuing and arresting lawbreakers.  

The number of incidents classified as Border Conflicts with Syria (90) decreased by 38%  between January and April 2018, compared to the last third of 2017 (145 incidents).

Although last year’s decision to abolish the renewal fees to maintain residency for refugees registered in the country may have appeared to have formally improved legal access to residency to Syrians in Lebanon, in reality, 74% of the refugees still do not have legal residency. Most of the mapped incidents classified as Border Conflicts with Syria remain arrests (59 arrests, including 27 for illegal stay and 23 for affiliation with armed militants). It is also noteworthy to highlight that social discrimination incidents against Syrians are generally underreported.

Nonetheless, similar to the last third of 2017, 13 of these incidents had a discriminatory nature, with the army conducting raids on Syrian refugees’ camps, and were therefore classified as Conflicts of Social Discrimination. Finally, although the arrests related to illegal stay of Syrian refugees were less frequent between January and April 2018, they still targeted groups of Syrian refugees rather than individuals. Indeed, following intensification of the clashes in Syria at the end of February, many civilians fleeing the conflict attempted to enter the country illegally during the past months.

During the first third of 2018, the number of incidents classified as Conflicts of Socio-Economic Development (38) increased by 41% compared to the last third of 2017. These incidents were mainly relevant to collective actions with public workers protesting for the improvement of their socio-economic situation, such as teachers, Ogero employees, civil defense volunteers, and EDL workers. For instance, EDL employees have been continuously protesting over the past couple of years, demanding full-time employment among other grievances. Although their protests were less frequent in 2017 due to the ongoing negotiations at the state level to implement a salary scale that would improve their working conditions, they rallied no less than 9 times, since the beginning of the year after the state failed to address their concerns.

A collective action organised by teachers on February 8  escalated, when disputes broke out between protesters and ISF, leading to several injuries and the arrest of 10 people. This incident caused a wave of indignation among teachers across Lebanon who staged a strike 4 days later in solidarity with their colleagues. Indeed, frustrations among teachers seem to have been growing during the past months as the government failed to address issues related to the education sector.

Between January and April 2018, the number of Conflicts of Social Discrimination (46 incidents), remained consistent with the last third of 2017.  Almost half of these incidents were categorised as collective actions mainly related to ongoing grievances such as general amnesty for Islamist detainees, but also to episodic demonstrations related to recent developments such as solidarity protests with the Kurds in Syria after the Afrin offensive led by the Turkish Army.  

3. Focus on incidents relevant to gender-based violence